S-WoPEc
 
Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
Department of Economics, Stockholm University Research Papers in Economics, Department of Economics, Stockholm University

No 2006:4:
The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread under the Veil of Time

Paolo Zagaglia ()

Abstract: I apply a multiresolution decomposition to the term spread and real-GDP growth in the U.S. Using the filtered data, I study whether the yield spread helps forecasting output. The results show that the predictive power of the yield spread varies largely across time scales both in-sample and out-of-sample at various forecast horizons. Contrarily to the existing literature, I find evidence of a strikingly negative long-run relationship between the spread and future GDP growth over a frequency that spans from 8 to 16 years per cycle. A linear combination among filtered yield spreads shows a sizable improvement in forecasting out-of-sample. The decomposed series are also used for proposing a solution to the breakdown in the in-sample predictive relationship documented by Dotsey (1998) that occurs after 1985.

Keywords: wavelets; term structure; predictability; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C19; E27; E43; (follow links to similar papers)

19 pages, June 16, 2006

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

wp06_04.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Sten Nyberg ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2006_0004 This page was generated on 2016-11-07 22:04:14