Research Papers in Economics, Department of Economics, Stockholm University
No 2010:2:
The Global Arms Trade Network 1950-2007
Anders Akerman ()
and Anna Larsson ()
Abstract: We study the evolution of the global arms trade network
using a unique dataset on all international transfers of major conventional
weapons over the period 1950-2007. First, we provide a careful description
of the characteristics of global arms trade using tools from social network
analysis. Second, we relate our …findings to political regimes by studying
whether differences in polity scores affect the likelihood of arms trade by
estimating an augmented gravity equation. Our findings from the network
analysis are much in line with common views of the Cold War. We see a clear
division between the Warsaw Pact and NATO, with the Soviet Union being more
central to the former than the United States to the latter. We find that
differences in polity has a significant, negative effect on the likelihood
of arms trade between two countries. The relationship is remarkably robust
throughout the sample period and does not hold for trade in any other good
that we investigate. The result suggests that democracies are indeed more
likely to trade arms with other democracies than with autocracies since the
former are not perceived as potential adversaries. We view this finding as
evidence in favour of the Democratic Peace Theory.
Keywords: Arms Trade; Networks; Democracy; Autocracy; NATO; The Warsaw Pact; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: F19; F51; F59; P51; (follow links to similar papers)
40 pages, February 2, 2010
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