S-WoPEc
 
Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
Department of Economics, Stockholm University Research Papers in Economics, Department of Economics, Stockholm University

No 2010:10:
Are Inflation Forecasts from Major Swedish Forecasters Biased?

Michael Lundholm ()

Abstract: Inflation forecasts made 1999-2005 by Sveriges Riksbank and Konjunkturinstitet of Swedish inflation rates 1999-2007 are tested for unbiasedness; i.e., are the mean forecast errors zero? The bias is in the order of -0.1 percentage units for horizons below one year and in the order of 0.1 and 0.6 (depending on inflation measure) above one year. Using the maximum entropy bootstrap for inference bias is significant whereas inference using HAC indicates insignificance.

Keywords: Forecast evaluation; inflation; unbiasedness; maximum entropy bootstrap; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E37; (follow links to similar papers)

13 pages, June 3, 2010

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

wp10_10.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Sten Nyberg ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2010_0010 This page was generated on 2016-11-07 22:04:15