Research Papers in Economics, Department of Economics, Stockholm University
Sveriges Riksbank's Inflation Interval Forecasts 1999-2005
Abstract: Are Sveriges Riksbank's inflation (CPI and KPIX) interval
forecasts calibrated in the sense that the intervals cover realised
inflation with the stated ex ante coverage probabilities 50, 75 and 90
percent? In total 150 interval forecast 1999:Q2-2005:Q2 are assessed for
CPI and KPIX. The main result is that the forecast uncertainty is
understated, but there are substantial differences between individual
forecast origins and inflation measures.
Keywords: Inflation; forecast; interval forecast; forecast uncertainty; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C53; E31; E37; (follow links to similar papers)
14 pages, June 23, 2010
Before downloading any of the electronic versions below
you should read our statement on
for viewing Postscript files and the
Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.
Full text versions of the paper:
Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Sten Nyberg ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ()
or Helena Lundin ().
Design by Joachim Ekebom