Umeå Economic Studies, Department of Economics, Umeå University
No 478:
Forecasting the Size Distribution of Financial Plants in Swedish Municipalities
Kurt Brännäs ()
Abstract: The paper studies the forecasting of a future size
distribution of plants. As a model we use an open Markov chain model for
macro data. Estimation is by reparametrization instead of by inequality
restrictions using single equation least squares. The estimator is studied
in a small Monte Carlo experiment for short time series lengths and macro
data. Well-known mobility indices and a new idea of using a truncated
transition probability matrix are discussed and also studied in the Monte
Carlo experiment. For the financial plants (1984-1993) we find evidence of
mobility of a downsizing nature. In a one-step-ahead forecast evaluation we
find some overprediction.
Keywords: Open Markov chain; Mobility index; Reparametrization; Least squares estimation; Plant size; Municipality; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C30; C50; G20; L20; (follow links to similar papers)
16 pages, October 4, 1998
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