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Department of Economics, Umeå University Umeå Economic Studies, Department of Economics, Umeå University

No 547:
A Bivariate Integer Valued Allocation Model for Guest Nights in Hotels and Cottages

Kurt Brännäs () and Jonas Nordström ()

Abstract: The number of Norwegian guest nights in Swedish hotels and cottages is studied. Aggregation of an integer-valued AR(1) model and a two-stage demand model underlies the empirical results. The parameters in the model are check-out probability, mean check-in and the probability of selecting the hotel alternative. These parameters are specified to depend on economic variables implied by demand analysis. Via the probability of selecting a hotel, the empirical results indicate a substitution towards less expensive accommodation as the Swedish price level increases. For the check-out probability, an increase in the cottage price reduces the probability for staying another night in cottage, whereas an increase in the hotel price indicates a decrease in the check-out probability for hotel.

Keywords: Integer-valued time series; demand analysis; tourism; accomodation; hotel; cottage; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C32; C35; C51; D12; (follow links to similar papers)

23 pages, December 11, 2000

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