Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Umeå Economic Studies,
Umeå University, Department of Economics
No 803: Risk and Rationalization – The role of affect and cognitive dissonance for sexual risk taking
Andréa Mannberg ()
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Andréa Mannberg: Department of Economics, Umeå University, Postal: S 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Abstract: This paper analyzes the mechanisms underlying excessive sexual risk taking in the presence of HIV. Drawing ideas from psychology on decision-making processes and risk evaluation, a theoretical model interacting affect-induced myopia and cognitive dissonance is developed and analyzed. The results of the theoretical analysis suggest that the effect of rationalization of personal risk depends on the risk of being HIV positive. Although rationalization causes excessive risk taking behavior for individuals with a relatively low lifetime risk, it may prevent fatalism among individuals whose lifetime risk of HIV is perceived as overwhelming.
Keywords: HIV/AIDS; Self-control; Time inconsistency; Dissonance theory; Regret
38 pages, April 21, 2010
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