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Department of Economics, Uppsala University Working Paper Series, Uppsala Center for Labor Studies, Department of Economics, Uppsala University

No 2010:13:
Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data

Magnus Gustavsson () and Pär Österholm ()

Abstract: The informational value of the aggregate US unemployment rate has recently been questioned because of a unit root in the labor-force participation rate; the lack of mean reversion implies that long-run changes in unemployment rates are highly unlikely to reflect long-run changes in joblessness. This paper shows that this critique also extends to unemployment rates for sub-populations, such as prime-aged males.

Keywords: Mean reversion; Unit-root test; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C22; E24; J21; (follow links to similar papers)

13 pages, December 2, 2010

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