Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Uppsala University
The relationship between housing investment and economic growth in ChinaFA panel analysis using quarterly provincial data
() and Aiyong Zhu
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the long-run and short-run
relationship between housing investment and economic growth in China using
the quarterly province-level panel data for the period 1999 q1 to 2007 q4.
Recently developed econometric techniques for panel unit root testing and
heterogeneous panel cointegration analysis are employed. The empirical
results provide clear support of a stable long-run relationship between
housing investment, non-housing investment and GDP in China. We then
estimate the long-run elasticity of GDP with respect to housing investment
for the whole country as well as three sub regions. The variations across
regions are detected and reasons for this fact are discussed. Based on the
panel ECM, we show that there is bidirectional Granger causality between
housing investment and GDP in both short run and long run for the whole
country, while the impacts of housing investment on GDP behave strikingly
differently in the three sub-regions of China.
Keywords: Housing investment; Economic growth; Panel cointegration; Granger causality; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: E22; L74; R31; (follow links to similar papers)
26 pages, December 2, 2008
Before downloading any of the electronic versions below
you should read our statement on
for viewing Postscript files and the
Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.
Full text versions of the paper:
Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Katarina Grönvall ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ()
or Helena Lundin ().
Design by Joachim Ekebom