BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland
No 5/2002:
Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis? Results from the signals approach
Axel Brüggemann ()
and Thomas Linne ()
Abstract: The aim of paper is to analyse the vulnerability of the
Central and Eastern European accession countries to the EU as well as that
of Turkey and Russia to a financial crisis. Our methodology is an extension
of the signals approach. We develop a composite indicator to measure the
evolutin of of the risk potential in each country. Our findings show that
crises in Central and Eastern Europe are caused by much the usual suspects
s in others emerging markets. In particular an overvalued exchange rate.
Weak exports and dwindling currency reserves have good precictive power for
assessing crisis vulnerabilities.
Keywords: financial crises; vulnerability indicator; Central and Eastern Europe; (follow links to similar papers)
33 pages, March 11, 2002
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