BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland
No 1/2011:
Comparing China’s GDP Statistics with Coincident Indicators
Aaron Mehrotra ()
and Jenni Paakkonen
Abstract: We use factor analysis to summarize information from
various macroeconomic indicators, effectively producing coincident
indicators for the Chinese economy. We compare the dynamics of the
estimated factors with GDP, and compare our factors with other published
indicators for the Chinese economy. The indicator data match the GDP
dynamics well and discrepancies are very short. The periods of
discrepancies seem to correspond to shocks affecting the growth process as
neither autoregressive models for GDP itself nor various coincident
indicators are able to forecast them satisfactorily.
Keywords: factor models; principal component; GDP; China; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C30; O40; P20; (follow links to similar papers)
33 pages, February 18, 2011
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