BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland
No 13/2011:
What drives urban consumption in mainland China? The role of property price dynamics
Yu-Fu Chen ()
, Michael Funke and Aaron Mehrotra ()
Abstract: This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on
consumption by disentangling house price effects on consumption for
mainland China. In a stochastic modelling framework, the riskiness, rate of
increase and persistence of house price movements have different
implications for the consumption/housing ratio. We exploit the geographical
variation in property prices by using a quarterly city-level panel dataset
for the period 1998Q1 – 2009Q4 and rely on a panel error correction model.
Overall, the results suggest a significant long run impact of property
prices on consumption. They also broadly confirm the predictions from the
theoretical model.
Keywords: consumption; house prices; China; panel data; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C23; E21; O53; R31; (follow links to similar papers)
35 pages, June 21, 2011
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