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Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland

No 13/2011:
What drives urban consumption in mainland China? The role of property price dynamics

Yu-Fu Chen (), Michael Funke and Aaron Mehrotra ()

Abstract: This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on consumption by disentangling house price effects on consumption for mainland China. In a stochastic modelling framework, the riskiness, rate of increase and persistence of house price movements have different implications for the consumption/housing ratio. We exploit the geographical variation in property prices by using a quarterly city-level panel dataset for the period 1998Q1 – 2009Q4 and rely on a panel error correction model. Overall, the results suggest a significant long run impact of property prices on consumption. They also broadly confirm the predictions from the theoretical model.

Keywords: consumption; house prices; China; panel data; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C23; E21; O53; R31; (follow links to similar papers)

35 pages, June 21, 2011

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