Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland

No 15/2012:
Predictive power of confidence indicators for the Russian economy

Niko Korte ()

Abstract: This study examines the forecasting power of confidence indicators for the Russian economy. ARX models are fitted to the six confidence or composite indicators, which were then compared to a simple benchmark AR-model. The study used the output of the five main branches as the reference series. Empirical evidence suggests that confidence indicators do have forecasting power. The power is strongly influenced by the way which the indicator is constructed from the component series. The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) and the OECD Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) were the best performers in terms of both the information criterion and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: confidence indicators; forecasting; Russia; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E37; P27; (follow links to similar papers)

42 pages, July 12, 2012

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

dp1512.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Päivi Määttä ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2012_015 This page was generated on 2014-12-14 19:21:22