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Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland

No 22/2012:
Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets

Alexey Ponomarenko ()

Abstract: We apply recently developed early warning indicators systems to a cross-section of emerging markets. We find that, with little or no modification, models designed to predict asset price booms/busts in advanced countries may be useful for emerging markets. The concept of monitoring a set of asset prices, real activity (especially investment) and financial (especially credit) indicators is generally found to be efficacious.

Keywords: early warning indicators; asset prices; emerging markets; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E37; E44; E51; (follow links to similar papers)

30 pages, October 2, 2012

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