BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland
No 11/2013:
Exchange market pressures during the financial crisis: A Bayesian model averaging evidence
Martin Feldkircher ()
, Roman Horvath ()
and Marek Rusnak ()
Abstract: In this paper, we examine whether pre-crisis leading
indicators help explain pressures on the exchange rate (and its volatility)
during the global financial crisis. We use a unique data set that covers
149 countries and 58 indicators, and estimation techniques that are robust
to model uncertainty. Our results are threefold: First and foremost, we
find that price stability plays a pivotal role as a determinant of exchange
rate pressures. More specifically, the currencies of countries that
experienced higher inflation prior to the crisis tend to be more affected
in times of stress. Second, we investigate potential effects that vary with
the level of pre-crisis inflation. In this vein, our results reveal that
domestic savings reduce the severity of pressures in countries that
experienced a low-infation environment prior to the crisis. Finally, we
find evidence of the mitigating effects of international reserves on the
volatility of exchange rate pressures.
Keywords: exchange market pressures; financial crisis; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: F31; F37; (follow links to similar papers)
27 pages, May 29, 2013
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