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Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland

No 24/2013:
The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: A fresh look at Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system

Boris Blagov () and Michael Funke ()

Abstract: An estimated Markov-switching DSGE modelling framework that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent credibility of Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system. The model distinguishes two regimes with respect to the time-series properties of the risk premium. Regime-dependent impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks reveal substantial differences in spreads. These findings contribute to efforts at modelling exchange rate regime credibility as a non-linear process with two distinct regimes.

Keywords: Markov-switching DSGE models; exchange rate regime credibility; Hong Kong; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C51; C52; E32; F41; (follow links to similar papers)

34 pages, September 4, 2013

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