Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers,
Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics

No 12-2000: MODELING THE DIVIDEND-PRICE RATIO: THE ROLE OF FUNDAMENTALS USING A REGIME-SWITCHING APPROACH

Steen Nielsen and Jan Overgaard Olesen
Additional contact information
Steen Nielsen: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Postal: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Solbjerg Plads 3 C, 5. sal, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
Jan Overgaard Olesen: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Postal: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Solbjerg Plads 3 C, 5. sal, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark

Abstract: Using annual data over the post-World War I-period, we estimate a fundamentals-based empirical model for the dividend-price ratio of Danish stocks. The key fundamentals-variable is a time-varying discount rate, decomposed into time-varying measures for the growth-adjusted real interest rate and the risk premium on stocks. In addition, the model includes real dividends and the lagged dividend-price ratio as explanatory variables. Results show that the model suffers from structural breaks over the sample. Using a two-state regime-switching approach to capture non-modeled shifts in the economic environment, we find that all fundamentals are highly significant in at least one regime and, moreover, obtain a good fit. The model identifies two very persistent regimes characterized by a ‘low’, respectively, ‘high’ dividend-price ratio.

Keywords: Dividend-price ration; Stocks; Denmark

JEL-codes: G19

39 pages, July 12, 2001

Full text files

7556  

Download statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Lars Nondal ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().

This page generated on 2018-01-23 23:31:11.