Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Working Papers,
Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics
No 6-2025: The Emerging Global Market for Energy Transition Critical Minerals: Competition, Cooperation, or Cartelisation?
Anupama Sen (), Tooraj Jamasb () and Natsuko Toba
Additional contact information
Anupama Sen: Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford
Tooraj Jamasb: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Postal: Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16 A. 1. floor, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
Natsuko Toba: Energy Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge
Abstract: As the clean energy transition progresses, critical minerals and metals will be essential components in the deployment of clean energy technologies, with estimates of their demand set to soar. However, proven reserves, as well as processing facilities, are geographically concentrated in a small number of countries. This paper addresses the following research question: how will the emerging market structure for critical minerals develop: will producers and consumers compete, cooperate, or cartelise? We contribute to the literature by exploring frameworks to describe some possible outcomes of market evolution based on characteristics of the current critical mineral market, preconditions for competition, cooperation or cartelisation, and case studies. We draw on insights from collusive oligopolies in the international market for oil and gas.
Keywords: Critical minerals; Energy transition; Supply chains; Decarbonisation; Industrial organisation; Cartels; Markets
JEL-codes: L13; O24; Q21; Q34; Q35; Q37; Q42; Q48
Language: English
25 pages, July 11, 2025
Full text files
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