, B. M. Golam Kibria
and Ghazi Shukur
Kristofer Månsson: Jönköping University, Postal: Department of Economics, Finance and Statistics, Jönköping University, P.O. Box 1026 , SE- 551 11 Jönköping , Sweden
B. M. Golam Kibria: Florida International University, Postal: Department of Mathematics and Statistics , Florida International University, Miami, Florida, USA
Ghazi Shukur: Linnaeus University, Postal: Department of Economics and Statistis , Linnaeus University, Växjö , Sweden
Abstract: In innovation analysis the logit model used to be applied on available data when the dependent variables are dichotomous. Since most of the economic variables are correlated between each other practitioners often meet the problem of multicollinearity. This paper introduces a shrinkage estimator for the logit model which is a generalization of the estimator proposed by Liu (1993) for the linear regression. This new estimation method is suggested since the mean squared error (MSE) of the commonly used maximum likelihood (ML) method becomes inflated when the explanatory variables of the regression model are highly correlated. Using MSE, the optimal value of the shrinkage parameter is derived and some methods of estimating it are proposed. It is shown by means of Monte Carlo simulations that the estimated MSE and mean absolute error (MAE) are lower for the proposed Liu estimator than those of the ML in the presence of multicollinearity. Finally the benefit of the Liu estimator is shown in an empirical application where different economic factors are used to explain the probability that municipalities have net increase of inhabitants.
14 pages, October 18, 2011
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