Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation,
Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies

No 288: The Great Export Recovery in German Manufacturing Industries, 2009/2010

Joachim Wagner ()
Additional contact information
Joachim Wagner: Leuphana University Lueneburg and CESIS, Stockholm, Postal: Leuphana University Lueneburg, , Institute of Economics, D-21332 Lueneburg, , Germany

Abstract: This paper uses comprehensive high-quality panel data from official statistics for exporting enterprises to investigate the micro-structure of the recent export recovery in 2010 in manufacturing industries in Germany after the great recession of 2008/2009. Almost all of the increase in exports was due to positive changes of exports in firms that continue to export (i.e. at the so-called intensive margin) while the increase of exports due to export starters (at the so-called extensive margin) was tiny. It is shown that Idiosyncratic shocks to very large firms played a decisive role in shaping the export recovery. These findings are remarkably symmetric to the results from an analysis of the great export collapse of 2008/09.

Keywords: Exports; great export recovery; granular economy; Germany

JEL-codes: E32; F14

23 pages, November 6, 2012

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