Discussion Papers,
Statistics Norway, Research Department

Abstract: This study evaluates the costs and benefits of alternative COVID-19 strategies for Norway, drawing on ex-post evidence from countries that pursued markedly different approaches. We argue that an elimination strategy—combining strict infection control with stringent border measures until a vaccine becomes available—delivers the greatest net benefits when a successful vaccine is expected within a short timeframe. Under vaccine uncertainty, both elimination and mitigation, the latter allowing gradual community spread, remain viable options. Norway adopted a suppression approach based on extensive TTIQ measures. Our findings suggest that this strategy was inferior compared to both elimination and mitigation. Finally, we compare ex-post assessments of costs and benefits with those emphasized in ex-ante evaluations, highlighting key discrepancies.

Keywords: COVID-19; Strategies; Cost-benefit analysis

JEL-codes: H51; I18

40 pages, January 2026

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