Discussion Papers,
Statistics Norway, Research Department

Abstract: This paper develops a theory for probabilistic models for risky choices that can be viewed as an extension of the expected utility theory to account for bounded rationality. One probabilistic version of the Archimedean Axiom and two versions of the Independence Axiom are proposed. In addition, additional axioms are proposed of which one is Luce's Independence from Irrelevant Alternatives. It is demonstrated that different combinations of the axioms yield different characterizations of the probabilities for choosing the respective risky prospects

Keywords: Random tastes; bounded rationality; independence from irrelevant alternatives; choice among lotteries; probabilistic choice for uncertain outcomes.

JEL-codes: C25; D11; D81 March 2005

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