Discussion Papers,
Statistics Norway, Research Department

Abstract: Housing markets tend to display both positive serial correlation as well as a considerable volatility over time. We present a stochastic model illustrating the connection between adaptive expectations and market fluctuations. All macro economic and demographic variables stay fixed over time and price movements are driven by expectations only. In the case where agents face unconstrained mortgage financing, the housing market oscillations are regular and depend on mortgage to income ratios. When credit institutions are introduced, which view houses as mortgage collaterals, the dynamics get complex. Periods of mild oscillations are mixed with violent collapses in an unpredictable manner.

Keywords: Heterogeneous agents; adaptive expectation; credit score models; house price cycles May 2006

Full text files

dp458.pdf  

Download statistics

• Statistics Norway, Research Department
• Home page for this series

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to L Maasø ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().

RePEc:ssb:dispap:458This page generated on 2024-10-30 04:36:23.