Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
EfD Discussion Paper,
Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg
No 24-10: A regression discontinuity assessment of the differential impacts of China’s Natural Forest Protection Program across forestland property right regimes
Qi Liu (), Shilei Liu (), Zhaoyang Liu (), Jintao Xu () and Andreas Kontoleon ()
Additional contact information
Qi Liu: School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China
Shilei Liu: School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China
Zhaoyang Liu: Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge
Jintao Xu: National School of Development, Peking University
Andreas Kontoleon: Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge
Abstract: This study examines the impact of China’s Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) on forest cover in four Chinese provinces. The NFPP represents one of the world’s largest-scale forest conservation/restoration programs in terms of its sheer budget size and geographical coverage. Understanding the heterogeneous impact of the policy on different landowners is important to evaluating its viability and success. This paper presents the first rigorous assessment of the program’s performance by comparing its impacts on forestland held by state-owned forest enterprises (SOFEs) and village collectives. We use the spatial regression discontinuity approach to better identify the impact caused by the program per se, rather than by other possible correlated confounding factors. Our results find that the NFPP has a moderately positive effect on forest cover on average over both types of forestland holders. Moreover, we find that the program has a greater positive effect on collective forests than on state forests, even though the program’s financial support for the former is not as strong as that for the latter. Our empirical findings provide unique insights that contribute to the highly controversial and ongoing debate on property right reform of China’s state-owned forests.
Keywords: Forest conservation and restoration; China’s Natural Forest Protection Program; policy impact evaluation; forestland property right regimes; spatial regression discontinuity.
JEL-codes: P31; P32; Q15; Q23; Q28
Language: English
40 pages, August 12, 2024
Full text files
EfD_DP-24-10%20MS-329.pdfFull text
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