Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Research Reports,
University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law

No 2007:12: Robust outbreak surveillance of epidemics in Sweden

Marianne Frisén (), Eva Andersson () and Linus Schiöler ()
Additional contact information
Marianne Frisén: Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University, Postal: Statistical Research Unit, Göteborg University, Box 640, SE 40530 GÖTEBORG
Eva Andersson: Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University, Postal: Statistical Research Unit, Göteborg University, Box 640, SE 40530 GÖTEBORG
Linus Schiöler: Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University, Postal: Statistical Research Unit, Göteborg University, Box 640, SE 40530 GÖTEBORG

Abstract: Outbreak detection is of interest for several diseases and syndromes. The aim is to detect the progressing increase in the incidence as soon as possible after the onset of the outbreak. A semiparametric method is applied to Swedish data on tularemia and influenza. The method is constructed to detect a change from a constant level to a monotonically increasing incidence. If seasonal effects are present, the residuals from a model incorporating this can be used. The properties of the method are evaluated by application to Swedish influenza data on tularemia and influenza and by simulations. The suggested method is compared with subjective judgments and with other algorithms. The conclusion is that the method works well. A user-friendly computer program is described.

Keywords: Computer program; Exponential family; Influenza; Monitoring; Ordered regression; Subjective judgment; Tularemia

JEL-codes: C10

20 pages, January 1, 2007

Download statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Linus Schiöler ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().

This page generated on 2018-02-05 22:05:20.