Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers in Economics,
University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics

No 554: Natural Disasters and Government Turnover

Pelle Ahlerup ()
Additional contact information
Pelle Ahlerup: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University, Postal: P.O.Box 640, SE 40530 GOTHENBURG, Sweden

Abstract: Natural disasters have been linked to both violent conflict and, in some settings, poor economic growth, but do they also drive government parties out of office? We study gov- ernment turnover in a global sample of more than 200 elections to the executive. Natural disasters are associated with more frequent turnover, but not in highly democratic countries. The e¤ect of geophysical disasters is especially strong, and even stronger when endogeneity is addressed.

Keywords: natural disasters; elections

JEL-codes: D72; P48; Q54

16 pages, February 20, 2013

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