Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance,
Stockholm School of Economics

No 0442: Predicting Survival in cost-effectiveness analyses based on clinical trials

Ulf-G Gerdtham () and Niklas Zethraeus ()
Additional contact information
Ulf-G Gerdtham: Dept. of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, Postal: Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, S-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
Niklas Zethraeus: Dept. of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, Postal: Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, S-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: This paper deals with the question how to model health effects after the cessation of a randomised controlled trial (RCT). Using clinical trial data on severe congestive heart failure patients we illustrate how survival beyond the cessation of a RCT can be predicted based on parametric survival models. In the analysis we compare the predicted survival and the resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different survival models with the actual survival/ICER. Our main finding is that the results are highly sensitive to the choice of survival model and that extensive sensitivity analysis in the CE analysis is required. We also show that adding the true survival after the end of the clinical study will underestimate the true variability.

Keywords: cost-effectiveness analysis; modelling; confidence intervals

JEL-codes: I10; I12; I19

22 pages, May 8, 2001

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