Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Paper Series,
IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy

No 2004:1: Statistically assisted programme selection - International experiences and potential benefits for Switzerland

Markus Frölich (), Michael Lechner () and Heidi Steiger ()
Additional contact information
Markus Frölich: Universität Gt. Gallen, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research (SIAW), Postal: Dufourstrasse 48, CH-9000 St. Gallen
Michael Lechner: Universität Gt. Gallen, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research (SIAW), Postal: Dufourstrasse 48, CH-9000 St. Gallen
Heidi Steiger: Universität Gt. Gallen, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research (SIAW), Postal: Dufourstrasse 48, CH-9000 St. Gallen

Abstract: The need for better targeting of active labour market programmes is evident from the many evaluation studies that find insignificant or even negative effects. A statistical system could contribute to a more precise targeting of labour market programmes to those individuals who are likely to benefit from them. Such a system could assist caseworkers in selecting adequate programmes on an individual basis. In this paper, international experiences with these systems are surveyed and a potential approach for Switzerland is developed. The simulated outcomes indicate that a statistical selection system could have contributed to a substantial re-employment increase.

Keywords: Active labour market policy; profiling; targeting; statistical treatment rules

JEL-codes: J68

31 pages, September 1, 2003

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