Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Working Paper Series,
IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy
No 2019:19: Individual Consequences of Occupational Decline
Per-Anders Edin (), Tiernan Evans (), Georg Graetz (), Sofia Hernnäs () and Guy Michaels ()
Additional contact information
Per-Anders Edin: Uppsala University, Postal: Department of Economics
Tiernan Evans: London School of Economics., Postal: London School of Economics.
Georg Graetz: Uppsala University, Postal: Uppsala University, Department of economics
Sofia Hernnäs: Uppsala University, Postal: Uppsala University, Department of economics
Guy Michaels: London School of Economics, Postal: London
Abstract: What are the earnings and employment losses that workers suffer when demand for their occupations declines? To answer this question we combine forecasts on occupational employment changes, which allow us to identify unanticipated declines; administrative data on the population of Swedish workers, spanning several decades; and a highly detailed occupational classification. We find that, compared to similar workers, those facing occupational decline lost about 2-5 percent of mean cumulative earnings from 1986-2013. But workers at the bottom of their occupations’ initial earnings distributions suffered considerably larger losses. These earnings losses are partly accounted for by reduced employment, and increased unemployment and retraining.
Keywords: Technological change; Occupations; Inequality
101 pages, August 27, 2019
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