Working Paper Series,
IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy

Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact on students’ educational and labour market trajectories of local supply variations in fields of upper secondary education in Sweden. It takes a broad approach and studies the overall, reduced form, effects on several short-, medium- and long-term outcomes. The results highlight the multidimensional impact of educational supply; expanding supply of one track increases its admission rates, but also leads to a redistribution of students across programs. Increased supply is furthermore associated with decreasing average school peer ability, but also with smaller class sizes, and a higher likelihood of getting into one’s top ranked program. There is no strong evidence of any long-term effects on the labour market outcomes of local youth – a finding that may reflect the multifaceted short-run impacts.

Keywords: supply of education; upper secondary school; earnings effects of schooling and field of education

JEL-codes: I21; I26

Language: English

39 pages, July 29, 2025

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