Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Arbetsrapport,
Institute for Futures Studies

No 2003:4: Swedish post-war economic development. The role of age structure in a welfare state.

Thomas Lindh () and Bo Malmberg ()
Additional contact information
Thomas Lindh: Institute for Futures Studies, Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
Bo Malmberg: Institute for Futures Studies, Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: There are strong life cycle patterns in practically all human behavior as well as in resources and capabilities. Variations in the age structure therefore affect all aspects of the aggregate economy. Swedish post-war development exhibit patterns of age structure effects on saving, growth, investment, current account, budget balance and inflation consistent with the dynamics of these variables in historic cycles. The deviations of actual time series from the model predictions arise with identifiable shifts in economic policy. The poor performance of the Swedish welfare state 1975-1995 can partly be explained by policies working against the underlying age structure changes.

Keywords: age structure; Swedish post-war economic development

JEL-codes: J00

23 pages, August 2002

Price: 25 SEK

Note: ISBN 91-89655-33-8

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