Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Arbetsrapport,
Institute for Futures Studies

No 2004:5: Forecasting global growth by age structure projections

Bo Malmberg () and Thomas Lindh ()
Additional contact information
Bo Malmberg: Institute for Futures Studies, Postal: Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
Thomas Lindh: Institute for Futures Studies, Postal: Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations with GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the retired population.

Keywords: Global growth; age structure

JEL-codes: J10

31 pages, August 2004

Price: 25 SEK

Note: ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-53-2

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20051201134206filBLStD87hQfBn320qrUPl.pdf PDF-file 

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