Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Arbetsrapport,
Institute for Futures Studies

No 2005:20: Demography and housing demand - What can we learn from residential construction data?

Thomas Lindh () and Bo Malmberg ()
Additional contact information
Thomas Lindh: Institute for Futures Studies, Postal: Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
Bo Malmberg: Institute for Futures Studies, Postal: Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: There are obvious reasons why residential construction should depend on the population’s age structure. We estimate this relation on Swedish time series data and OECD panel data. Large groups of young adults are associated with higher rates of residential construction. But there is also a significant negative effect from those above 75. Age effects on residential investment are robust and forecast well out-of-sample in contrast to the corresponding house price results. This may explain why the debate around house prices and demography has been rather inconclusive. Rapidly aging populations in the industrialized world makes the future look bleak for the construction industry of these countries.

Keywords: demography; housing demand

JEL-codes: J11

32 pages, December 12, 2005

Price: 25 SEK

Note: ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 13: 978-91-89655-78-2 ISBN 10: 91-89655-78-8

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20051201135155filHV09HN10GCnEx9sLug3s.pdf PDF-file 

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