Arbetsrapport,
Institute for Futures Studies

Abstract: The article presents a typology of forecasts, i.e. statements on future events or states. It has two dimensions, truth claim and explanatory claim; each dimension has two values, making the claim or not making the claim. The four outcomes are then: Forecasts which make both truth claims and explanatory claims (predictions); which make truth claims, but not ex¬planatory claims (prognoses); which make explanatory claims, but not truth claims (science fiction); and which make neither truth claims nor explana¬tory claims (utopias or dystopias). We regard each outcome as an ideal type, against which forecasts can be measured. We illustrate the use of the typol¬ogy by presenting a Swedish example of each outcome. The prediction is Dahlbom’s The future of Sweden (Sveriges framtid), the prognosis is Wahl¬ström’s After the acid test (Efter stålbadet), the science fiction contribution is Martinson’s Aniara, and the dystopia is Boye’s Kallocain.

Keywords: typology of forecasts; forecasts

JEL-codes: Z00

29 pages, March 2009

Price: 25 SEK

Note: ISSN:1652-120X; ISBN:978-91-85619-42-9

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20090401112913filHV7Ih5AnWpW92Z3GLe7U.pdf  

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