Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Seminar Papers,
Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies

No 706: Optimal Campaigning in Presidential Elections: The Probability of Being Florida

David Strömberg ()
Additional contact information
David Strömberg: Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, Postal: Stockholm University, S-106 69 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: This paper delivers a precise recommendation for how presidential candidates should allocate their resources to maximize the probability of gaining a majority in the Electoral College. A two-candidate, probabilistic-voting model reveals that more resources should be devoted to states which are likely to be decisive in the electoral college and, at the same time, have very close state elections. The optimal strategies are empirically estimated using state-level opinion-polls available in September of the election year. The model’s recommended campaign strategies closely resemble those used in actual campaigns. The paper also analyses how the allocation of resources would change under the alternative electoral rule of a direct national vote for president.

Keywords: elections; political campaigns; public expenditures

JEL-codes: C50; C72; D72; H50; M37

58 pages, March 11, 2002

Full text files

FULLTEXT01  

Download statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Hanna Christiansson ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().

This page generated on 2018-01-23 23:33:58.