Kenneth Baltzer (), Hans G. Kærgård () and Kim M. Lind ()
Kenneth Baltzer: University of Copenhagen, Institute of Food and Resource Economics, Postal: Rolighedsvej 23, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Danmark
Hans G. Kærgård: Fødevareøkonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Postal: Rolighedsvej 23, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Danmark
Kim M. Lind: University of Copenhagen, Institute of Food and Resource Economics,, Postal: Rolighedsvej 23, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Danmark
Abstract: This paper provides a qualitative and numerical analysis of a potential Doha agreement on multilateral trade liberalisation following the »mini-ministerial« meeting of negotiators in Geneva during July 2008. We discuss the latest draft modalities for agricultural and non-agricultural market access, dated 10 July 2008. For the numerical analysis, we design a Doha-scenario, that reflects the draft modalities as closely as possible, and employ the GTAP model and database to estimate the economic impacts of such an agreement. We find that the agreement has postive global welfare implications of around USD 55 billion, corresponding to around 0.2 percent of GDP. The Danish economy also benefits from the agreement, largely due to improved access for the Danish pork industry to important protected export markets such as Japan. Throughout the paper, we take global and Danish perspectives on Doha.
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