Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift,
Nationaløkonomisk Forening

Abstract: Danish business cycles from 1974 to 2000 are studied. The HP-filter is applied and a number of empirical regularities are identified: Consumption has often led the GDP cycle while investment, especially construction, has tended to follow with a lag. Import is clearly pro cyclical and foreign trade has modified the swings in GDP. Price and wage levels are found to be dominantly counter-cyclical. However, wage changes seem pro-cyclical as they correlate negatively with unemployment and it is not necessary to attribute a dominant role to supply shocks to explain the price cycle. A counter-cyclical pattern in the profit share suggests that demand shocks impact prices via the wage formation rather than pulling prices directly

Keywords: konjunkturcykler; korrelationsmønstre

JEL-codes: A10

Language: Danish

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