Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Paper Series,
Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance

No 21/2: What effect does gun-related violence have on the attractiveness of a residential area? The case of Stockholm, Sweden

Mats Wilhelmsson (), Vania Ceccato () and Manne Gerell ()
Additional contact information
Mats Wilhelmsson: Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology, Postal: Division of Real Estate Economics and Finance, Teknikringen 10B, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Vania Ceccato: Department of Urban Planning and Environment, Postal: Royal Institute of Technology, Teknikringen 10B, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Manne Gerell: Department of Criminology, Malmö University, Postal: 206 06 Malmö, Sweden

Abstract: This study aims to analyse the effect of gun-related violence on housing values, controlling for the area’s crime levels and locational factors. Using the regression discontinuity design method, we can estimate the short-term effects of shootings. Findings from our analysis indicate that shootings directly affect those who are impacted by shootings and indirectly affect the environments where shootings occur. The indirect effect of shootings is momentary, as it is capitalised directly in housing values in the immediate area. The effect also appears to be relatively long-term and persistent as housing values have not returned to the price level before the shooting 100-200 days after the shooting. The capitalisation effect is higher the closer one gets to the central parts of the city. On the other hand, the capitalisation effect is not higher or lower in areas with a higher crime rate per capita.

Keywords: Gun violence; shootings; fear; housing values; GIS; regression discontinuity design

JEL-codes: C21; O18; R31

25 pages, March 6, 2021

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