Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Discussion Papers,
Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science
No 2004/11: Testing for Granger causality in the presence of measurement errors
Jonas Andersson ()
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Jonas Andersson: Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Postal: NHH , Department of Finance and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Abstract: In this paper a potential problem with tests for Granger-causality is investigated. If one of the two variables under study, but not the other, is measured with error the consequence is that tests of forecastablity of the variable without measurement error by the variable with measurement error will be rejected less often than it should. Since this is not the case for the test of forecastability of the variable with measurement error by the one without there is a danger of concluding that one variable leads the other while it is in fact a feed-back relationship. The problem is illustrated by an example.
Keywords: Granger causality; measurement error
JEL-codes: C32
7 pages, September 24, 2004
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