Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Discussion Papers,
Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science

No 2014/41: Probabilistic cost efficiency and bounded rationality in the newsvendor model

Jan Ubøe (), Jonas Andersson (), Kurt Jörnsten (), Jostein Lillestøl () and Leif K. Sandal ()
Additional contact information
Jan Ubøe: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Jonas Andersson: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Kurt Jörnsten: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Jostein Lillestøl: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Leif K. Sandal: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway

Abstract: In this paper we establish a link between probabilistic cost efficiency and bounded rationality in the newsvendor model. This establishes a framework where bounded rationality can be examined rigorously by statistical methods. The paper offers a relatively deep theoretical analysis of underorders/overorders in the newsvendor model. The theory is supported by empirical findings from our analysis of empirical data from laboratory experiments. In particular, we observe that underorders are systematically larger than overorders, an issue that our theoretical model explains. From statistical tests we conclude that all variability in our data can be explained by probabilistic cost efficiency and risk aversion.

Keywords: Behavioral economics; experimental economics; bounded rationality; probabilistic cost efficiency.

JEL-codes: C00; C70

31 pages, December 18, 2014

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