Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Discussion Papers,
Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science

No 2019/13: Analyzing learning effects in the newsvendor model by probabilistic methods

Jonas Andersson (), Kurt Jörnsten (), Jostein Lillestøl and Jan Ubøe ()
Additional contact information
Jonas Andersson: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Kurt Jörnsten: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Jostein Lillestøl: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Jan Ubøe: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway

Abstract: In this paper, we use probabilistic methods to analyze learning effects in a behavioral experiment on the newsvendor model. We argue why we should believe that suggested orders follow a multinomial logit distribution, and use the single parameter in that model to extract information on learning effects. We revisit the data, analyzed previously by Bolton et al. (2012), and show that our model predicts the pull-to-center effect in these experimental data very well.

Keywords: Behavioral OR; experimental economics; bounded rationality; probabilistic methods; pull-to-center effect

JEL-codes: C00; C70

18 pages, October 11, 2019

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