Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Discussion Papers,
Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science
No 2024/7: Joint Forecasting of Salmon Lice and Treatment Interventions in Aquaculture Operations
Benjamin S. Narum () and Geir D. Berentsen ()
Additional contact information
Benjamin S. Narum: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Geir D. Berentsen: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Abstract: The need for joint forecasting of parasitic lice and associated preventative treatments stems from large monetary losses associated with such treatments, and the distribution of potential future treatments can be used in operational planning to hedge their associated risk. We present a spatio-temporal forecasting model that accounts for the joint dynamics between lice and treatments where spatial interaction between sites is derived from hydrodynamic transportation patterns. The model-derived forecasting distributions exhibit large heterogeneity between sites at significant levels of exposure which suggests the forecasting model can provide great value in assisting operational risk management.
Keywords: Long-term forecasting; GARMA models; density forecasts; aquaculture; salmon lice
Language: English
31 pages, May 27, 2024
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