Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Occasional Papers,
National Institute of Economic Research

No 43: The long-term sustainability of Sweden's public finances

Erik Jonasson ()
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Erik Jonasson: National Institute of Economic Research, Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: One of the recurring tasks of the NIER is to evaluate the long-term sustainability of Sweden's public finances. Long-term sustainability can be said to prevail if public income and expenditure over time is balanced in a way which does not give rise to longterm structural deficits. Evaluating long-term sustainability amounts to implementing long-term projections of public income and expenditure under the assumption that policy remains unchanged. These projections are based on long-term forecasts of population growth and simplified assumptions of the development of the economy in the long term. The objective is not to create a long-term forecast for Sweden's public finances, but to study scenarios with a view to identifying at an early stage any risks of imbalances building up as a result of current policy.

66 pages, May 5, 2015

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