Working Papers,
National Institute of Economic Research

Abstract: This paper assesses the properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden. The survey is conducted by Prospera once every quarter and consists of respondents from businesses and labour-market organisa-tions. The paper shows that inflation expectations measured in this sur-vey tend to be biased and inefficient forecasts of future inflation. Results also indicate that long-run inflation expectations are overly adaptive with respect to actual inflation. Finally, evaluations of forecast accuracy show that these inflation expectations are worse predictors of inflation than those of a professional forecasting institution and also typically outper-formed by a simple autoregressive model. Overall, our results indicate that economic agents’ expectations formation process is suboptimal and/or the survey fails to capture the true inflation expectations.

Keywords: Survey data; Inflation targeting

JEL-codes: E52

31 pages, December 1, 2009

Full text files

Working-Paper-114%E2...ations-in-Sweden.pdf  

Download statistics

• National Institute of Economic Research
• Home page for this series

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Sarah Hegardt Grant ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().

RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0114This page generated on 2024-09-13 22:16:24.