Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers,
National Institute of Economic Research

No 121: The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations

Thomas Jonsson () and Pär Österholm ()
Additional contact information
Thomas Jonsson: National Institute of Economic Research, Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden
Pär Österholm: National Institute of Economic Research, Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations in Sweden. Results show that the expectations are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance, we find that the survey participants generally perform worse than a con-stant forecast based on reasonable assumptions regarding the inflation target and productivity growth. Our findings indicate that caution should be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.

Keywords: Survey data

JEL-codes: E52; J30

24 pages, September 2010

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