Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers,
National Institute of Economic Research

No 121: The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations

Thomas Jonsson () and Pär Österholm ()
Additional contact information
Thomas Jonsson: National Institute of Economic Research, Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden
Pär Österholm: National Institute of Economic Research, Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations in Sweden. Results show that the expectations are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance, we find that the survey participants generally perform worse than a con-stant forecast based on reasonable assumptions regarding the inflation target and productivity growth. Our findings indicate that caution should be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.

Keywords: Survey data

JEL-codes: E52; J30

24 pages, September 2010

Full text files 

Working-Paper-121-Th...wth+Expectations.pdf PDF-file

Download statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Sarah Hegardt Grant ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().

RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0121This page generated on 2024-09-13 22:16:24.