() and Pär Österholm
Meredith Beechey: Sveriges Riksbank, Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, 103 37 Stockholm , Sweden
Pär Österholm: National Institute of Economic Research, Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden
Abstract: In recent years the central banks of Norway and Sweden have published their endogenous policy interest-rate forecasts. In this paper, we evaluate those forecasts alongside policy-rate expectations inferred from market pricing. We find that for both economies there are only small differences in relative forecasting precision between the central bank and market-implied measures. However, both types of forecast fail tests for unbiasedness and efficiency at longer horizons.
32 pages, January 22, 2013
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