Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers,
National Institute of Economic Research

No 128: Central Bank Forecasts of Policy Interest Rates: An Evaluation of the First Years

Meredith Beechey () and Pär Österholm ()
Additional contact information
Meredith Beechey: Sveriges Riksbank, Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, 103 37 Stockholm , Sweden
Pär Österholm: National Institute of Economic Research, Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: In recent years the central banks of Norway and Sweden have published their endogenous policy interest-rate forecasts. In this paper, we evaluate those forecasts alongside policy-rate expectations inferred from market pricing. We find that for both economies there are only small differences in relative forecasting precision between the central bank and market-implied measures. However, both types of forecast fail tests for unbiasedness and efficiency at longer horizons.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Market expectations; Norges Bank; Sveriges Riksbank

JEL-codes: E52

32 pages, January 22, 2013

Full text files

Working-Paper-128-Central+Bank-Forecasts-of-Policy-Interest+Rates%3A-An-Evaluation-of-the-First-Years.pdf PDF-file 

Download statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Sarah Hegardt Grant ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().

This page generated on 2018-01-23 23:36:16.