Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers,
National Institute of Economic Research

No 130: Survey Data and Short-Term Forecasts of Swedish GDP Growth

Pär Österholm ()
Additional contact information
Pär Österholm: National Institute of Economic Research, Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: In this paper, the author evaluates forecasting models for Swedish GDP growth which make use of data from Sweden´s most important business survey, the Economic Tendency Survey. Employing nine years of quarterly real-time data, an out-of-sample forecast exercise is conducted. Results indicate that the survey data have informational value that can be used to improve forecasts, thereby confirming the empirical relevance of survey data for GDP forecasters.

Keywords: Out-of-sample forecasts; Real-time data

JEL-codes: E22; E27

15 pages, September 13, 2013

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