Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Paper Series,
Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden)

No 74: A Theory-Consistent System Approach for Estimating Potential Output and the NAIRU

Mikael Apel () and Per Jansson
Additional contact information
Mikael Apel: Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden, Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Per Jansson: Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden, Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: A new approach is proposed for estimating potential output and the NAIRU. Identification is achieved using Okun’s law and a Phillips curve. The performance of the methodology is exemplified using data from Canada, the UK, and the US.

Keywords: NAIRU; Okun's law; Phillips curve; Potential output; Unobserved-components models

JEL-codes: C32; E32

7 pages, November 1, 1998

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