Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Paper Series,
Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden)

No 189: Bayesian Inference of General Linear Restrictions on the Cointegration Space

Mattias Villani ()
Additional contact information
Mattias Villani: Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden, Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: The degree of empirical support of a priori plausible structures on the cointegration vectors has a central role in the analysis of cointegration. Villani (2000) and Strachan and van Dijk (2003) have recently proposed finite sample Bayesian procedures to calculate the posterior probability of restrictions on the cointegration space, using the existence of a uniform prior distribution on the cointegration space as the key ingredient. The current paper extends this approach to the empirically important case with different restrictions on the individual cointegration vectors. Prior distributions are proposed and posterior simulation algorithms are developed. Consumers' expenditure data for the US is used to illustrate the robustness of the results to variations in the prior. A simulation study shows that the Bayesian approach performs remarkably well in comparison to other more established methods for testing restrictions on the cointegration vectors.

Keywords: Bayesian inference; Cointegration; Posterior probability; Restrictions.

JEL-codes: C11; C12

22 pages, September 1, 2005

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