Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Paper Series,
Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden)

No 213: Using a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model to make real nominal exchange rate forecasts

Peter Sellin ()
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Peter Sellin: Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden, Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: In this paper we undertake an out-of-sample evaluation of the ability of a model to forecast the Swedish Krona’s real and nominal effective exchange rate, using a cointegrating relation between the real exchange rate, relative output, terms of trade and net foreign assets (or alternatively the trade balance). The cointegrating relation is derived from a theoretical model of the New Open Economy Macroeconomics type. The forecasting performance of our estimated vector error correction model is quite good once the dynamics of the model have been augmented with an interest rate differential.

Keywords: New Open Economy Macroeconomics; real exchange rate; nominal exchange rate; forecasting

JEL-codes: C52; C53; F31

32 pages, October 1, 2007

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